Inventory on the rise

As expected, slow sales this quarter have persisted through March in the City of Calgary. This is not a surprise, after stronger growth in sales at the end of last year following the announced changes to the lending market.


First quarter sales totaled 3,423 units, nearly 18 per cent below last year's levels and 24 per cent below long-term averages. Easing sales and modest gains in new listings caused inventories to rise and months of supply to remain above four months.


"Economic conditions are slowly improving, but it has not been enough to outpace the current impact of higher lending rates and more stringent conditions," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


"We are entering the most active quarters in the housing market with more inventory, which could create some price fluctuations. However, the improving economy is expected to prevent overall prices from slipping by significant amounts."


While prices trended down on a quarterly basis, they remained relatively unchanged over last year's levels due to modest gains in the detached sector offsetting declines in the apartment sector.


The citywide benchmark price for detached product averaged $502,000 in the first quarter. This is slightly lower than the fourth quarter of last year, but comparable to levels recorded in the first quarter of last year. In March, the detached price reached $503,800, 3.6 per cent below pre-recession highs, but one per cent above the lows recorded during the recession.


"The market today is better than what we experienced at the peak of the recession," said CREB® president Tom Westcott.


"You can find good value if you're looking to buy a home, and you can also get good value if you're selling. Being well-informed, in any economic condition, is the key, because there are differences in the market depending on what type of property it is and where it is located."


Detached market inventories in the first quarter of 2017 were low compared to historical standards. This year, detached inventories have averaged 2,573 units over the first quarter, 10 per cent below first quarter averages recorded during 2015 and 2016.


Spring will have more inventory than last year, slowing progress on price recovery. However, the amount of price adjustment will vary depending on competing supply by location and product type.

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Oversupply persists despite improved sales activity for affordable product

City of Calgary, April 1, 2019 – March saw a modest decline in city wide sales activity compared to last year. However, sales have been rising for more affordable product in the detached and attached sectors.


Shifts in the lower end of the market have not outweighed easing across the higher priced product. First-quarter sales dropped to 3,108 units. This is nine per cent below last year and 28 per cent below typical levels of activity. 


Price declines and relatively slow sales activity are impacting the number of new listings. For the second consecutive month, new listings eased compared to last year’s levels and long-term trends, but it was not enough to prevent inventory growth.


“If new listings continue to slow compared to sales, it could start to help with the persistent oversupply scenario weighing on our housing market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


“However, inventory is still high. It will still take time for our market to transition towards more balanced conditions and stable pricing.”


With 6,595 units in inventory in March, the months of supply eased to five months. This is an improvement over the past several months, but still considered oversupplied when compared to levels traditionally recorded in March.


The oversupply in the Calgary market has caused further price declines this month. As of March, benchmark prices eased to $413,900, five per cent below last year’s levels and just below levels recorded last month.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS


Detached

  • First-quarter sales declined by nearly nine per cent compared to last year and 30 per cent below typical levels of activity.
  • Detached sales have varied depending on location and price range, with gains occurring mostly in the most affordable price ranges of each district. 
  • In March, citywide detached sales improved for all homes priced under $500,000.
  • Despite easing in new listings, inventories increased over last year’s levels, pushing months of supply to the highest level ever recorded for the month of March. When considering activity by districts, the North East and East districts have seen the level of oversupply ease compared to last year.
  • Oversupply in the detached sector continues to weigh on prices across all districts in the city. Citywide detached benchmark prices eased 5.4 per cent compared to last year for a total price of $475,800.


Apartment

  • Resale condominium sales fell by 14 per cent in March, causing first-quarter sales to total 464 units, 17 per cent below last year. The decline did not occur in all districts, as sales activity improved in both the North and West districts of the city. Despite some signs of improvements in those districts, activity remains well below long-term trends.
  • Supply in this sector is showing signs of adjusting to the lower levels of demand. New listings eased again this month compared to last year’s levels. Unlike other property types, this adjustment is impacting inventories. Inventory in March was 1,488 units, 12 per cent below last year’s levels.
  • The months of supply has edged down from levels recorded earlier in the year, but due to weak sales, it is elevated compared to last year’s levels.
  • Citywide, apartment condominium prices fell by 0.7 per cent from last month and 2.6 per cent over last year. However, in both the North East and South East districts, prices posted a modest gain over last year. 


Attached

  • There was a slight uptick in attached sales in March due to improvements in both the semi-detached and row sectors. Despite the gains in March, year-to-date sales remain four per cent below last year’s levels and 16 per cent below long-term averages.
  • Year-to-date sales have eased, but there have been improvements in the South and South East districts.
  • Despite some improvements in sales, citywide months of supply remain elevated.
  • Prices continued to trend down for semi-detached product. March’s benchmark price was $391,000, nearly six per cent below last year’s levels and 0.4 per cent below last month’s price. However, the North district saw different results, as tightening months of supply supported a modest gain in prices compared to both last month and last year.
  • Row prices in March remained relatively flat compared to February levels, but remain more than four per cent below last year’s levels and over 13 per cent lower than previous highs.



REGIONAL MARKET FACTS


Airdrie

  • First quarter sales were seven units less than last years levels, but the number of new listings also declined by 47 units over the same period. This prevented any significant change in inventory levels in the market. However, the months of supply remained elevated averaging five months after the first quarter.
  • The persistent oversupply in the market has weighed on prices. City-wide benchmark first quarter prices eased by 1.7 per cent compared to the previous quarter and remain 4.6 per cent below levels recorded in the first quarter of last year. While prices eased across all property types, the largest declines occurred in the apartment sector.


Cochrane

  • Cochrane’s first quarter sales and new listings were 114 units and 330 units, respectively, both declining over last years levels. However, the relatively steeper pull-back in sales caused inventories to rise and months of supply to average eight months in the first quarter.
  • Persistent oversupply in the market has weighed on prices. After the first quarter benchmark prices eased by 1.6 per cent compared to last year and 1.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. However, year-over-year declines were higher in the attached sector at 2.7 per cent compared to the detached sector which was 1.5 per cent.


Okotoks

  • In the first quarter both sales and new listings slowed compared to last year. However, the pull-back in new listings was not enough to reduce inventory levels in the market and months of supply remained elevated averaging 7.7 months in the first quarter.
  • The persistent oversupply has impacted prices. The detached benchmark price averaged $413,733 in the first quarter a 4.8 per cent decline compared to last year and 3.8 per cent below the fourth quarter of 2018. Price declines were slightly higher in the attached sector with the benchmark price totaling $376,433 for the first quarter a five per cent decline over the previous year. 

Courtesy: Terence Leung CREB

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New year kicks off with slow sales

City of Calgary, February 1, 2019 – As economic challenges linger into 2019, housing markets remain on a sluggish pace.


January sales totalled 804 units, 16 per cent below last year and 21 per cent below long-term averages for the month.


"The slow start to the year does not come as a surprise, as concerns about job losses and the state of the energy sector weigh on consumers. We anticipate that the slow market conditions will persist throughout much of the first quarter," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


The number of new listings entering the market remained comparable to last year, but those levels far surpassed sales activity. This is resulted in further gains in inventory levels. Elevated inventories relative to sales caused months of supply to rise to nearly seven months.


Persistent buyers' market conditions have continued to impact prices. Citywide residential benchmark prices eased to $414,800 in January. This is nearly one per cent lower than December figures and four per cent below January 2018 levels.

 

HOUSING MARKET FACTS


Detached

  • Detached sales eased by 17 per cent compared to last year. However, declines did not occur across all districts, as sales activity improved in both the North West and North East districts. The most significant sales declines occurred in the North and West districts of the city.
  • New listing rose across all districts except the North East, North and South East districts. Only the North East district recorded easing months of supply compared to last year.
  • Detached benchmark prices totalled $476,500, a one per cent decline compared to December and over four per cent lower than last January.
  • Prices eased across all districts. The largest year-over-year declines occurred in the South, North West and City Centre districts.

Apartment

  • Apartment sales totalled 126 units in January. This is 13 per cent below last year and over 20 per cent below long-term averages for the month.
  • Slower sales and lower new listings helped inventory levels ease. Currently, there are 1,173 units in inventory, which is nine per cent lower than January 2018 levels.
  • Despite some adjustments in inventory, months of supply remained elevated at nine months, impacting prices. While prices remained relatively flat compared to last month, they declined by two per cent compared to levels from last January.
  • Prices remain well below previous highs, but there were some price improvements compared to last year in both the North East and South East districts.

Attached

  • Sales declined for both row and semi-detached product types. New listings rose, causing inventories to rise for both product types.
  • With the attached sector firmly reflecting buyers' market conditions, prices eased by over four per cent for a January benchmark price of $313,700.
  • Semi-detached prices eased by nearly five per cent compared to last year for a total of $393,100. The steepest declines occurred in the City Centre and South districts, with adjustments of over six per cent.
  • Row prices declined by four per cent compared to last year for a total of $284,300. All districts recorded price declines, but the most notable decline occurred in the City Centre, where prices were nearly eight per cent lower than last year.

 

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS


Airdrie

  • January 2019 sales in Airdrie totalled 65 units. This is just below levels recorded last year, but comparable to the average activity occurring over the past ten years.
  • Despite easing new listings compared to last January, inventory levels increased to 422 units. Higher inventories given the sales activity caused months of supply to remain elevated at 6.5 month. Persistently high levels of supply relative to demand continue to weigh on prices.
  • Detached prices totalled $354,300 in January – 0.5 per cent below last month's price and nearly five per cent lower than January 2018.

Cochrane

  • Due to a pullback in Row sales, January sales activity slowed compared to last year and longer-term trends. At the same time new listings eased causing inventory gains and the months of supply to rise to nearly 14 months.
  • The oversupply in the market has caused prices to trend down compared to the previous month. However, on a year-over-year basis the detached benchmark price of $408,600 was relatively stable comparable to January 2018 price levels. 

Okotoks

  • Sales activity in January declined over last year. While the new listings in the market also declined compared to last year, there were still far more new listings then sales activity causing inventories to rise and months of supply to remain above 10 months.
  • Persistent oversupply has continued to weigh on benchmark prices with the third consecutive month-over-month decline. Detached home prices totalled $416,900 in January. This is one per cent lower than last month and three per cent lower than the same time last year.
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City of Calgary, January 2, 2019 –


As oversupply continues in Calgary’s housing market, December prices eased by one per cent compared to last month and are over three per cent below last December. 


“Persistent weakness in the job market and changes in the lending market impacted sales activity in the resale market this year,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


“This contributed to elevated supply in the resale market, resulting in price declines.”


December sales totalled 794 units, a 21 per cent decline over the previous year. Overall year-to-date sales in the city totalled 16,144 units. This is a 14 per cent decline over 2017 and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.


Inventory levels in December sat at 4,904 units. This is well above levels recorded last year and 30 per cent above typical levels for the month. Elevated resale inventories in 2018 were caused by gains in the detached and attached sectors.


Throughout 2018, the months of supply remained elevated and averaged 5.2 months. This contributed to the annual average benchmark price decline of 1.5 per cent. Price declines occurred across all product types and have caused citywide figures to remain over nine per cent below the monthly highs recorded in 2014.


“Both buyers and sellers faced adjustments in expectations this year. Sellers had to compete with more choice in the resale market, but also the new-home market,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott.


“With less people looking for a home, it became a choice between delaying when to sell or adjusting the sale price. However, buyers looking for more affordable product did not find the same price adjustments that existed in some of the higher price ranges.”


More information on the 2018 housing market will be released at CREB®’s 2019 Forecast Conference & Tradeshow (www.crebforecast.com) on Jan. 30, 2019.



HOUSING MARKET FACTS


Detached

  • Detached sales declined across all districts in 2018. With citywide sales of 9,945 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the year.
  • Detached inventories were higher than last year’s levels for each month of the year, including December. Slow sales caused the market to be oversupplied through most of 2018.
  • Detached benchmark prices totalled $481,400 in December, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. Overall, 2018 prices declined by 1.5 per cent compared to last year.
  • Prices have eased across most districts in 2018. The largest declines this year have occurred in the North East, North West and North districts.


Apartment

  • Apartment sales totalled 2,663 units in 2018. While the decline is less than other product types, levels are 22 per cent below long-term averages.
  • The apartment condominium sector has struggled with oversupply for almost three years and 2018 was no exception.
  • However, supply has been easing, as inventories this year averaged 1,584 units, one per cent below last year’s levels.
  • Despite slowing supply growth, the market remained oversupplied, causing further price declines. In December, benchmark prices were $251,500, over two per cent below last year. Annually, prices have declined by nearly three per cent for a total decline of 14 per cent since 2014.
  • Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.


Attached

  • Declines for both row and semi-detached product resulted in 2018 attached sales of 3,536 units, a 15 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages.
  • Slower sales activity prompted some pull-back in new listings, but this was limited to the row sector. Row new listings declined by four per cent and semi-detached new listings rose by nearly 15 per cent in 2018.
  • Despite some adjustments to new listings, inventory levels remained elevated, keeping the market in buyers’ market territory and putting downward pressure on prices.
  • In December, the semi-detached benchmark price totalled $397,500. This is a monthly and year-over-year decline of 0.8 and 3.8 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as 2018 prices remain just below 2017 levels. Overall, annual prices remain 1.4 per cent below 2014 peak levels.
  • Row prices have also been edging down. As of December, row prices were $288,400, a 1.5 per cent decline from last month and nearly four per cent below last year’s levels. Overall, 2018 prices remain two per cent below last year’s levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS


Airdrie

  • In 2018, the Airdrie housing market was distinctly marked by oversupply and signs of buyers’ market conditions. Compared to last year, inventory levels and months of supply have been significantly higher, combined with lower levels of sales. This has led to downward pressures on the benchmark price for detached homes.
  • Annual residential sales exhibited a year-over-year decline of 14 per cent and were almost 19 per cent lower than activity over the past 5 years. This consistent decline was observed across all product types.
  • Supply in 2018 was at record-high levels, with new listings achieving a new year-to-date peak for most of the year. Inventories have also been continuously increasing throughout this year and are 12 per cent higher than in 2017. Months of supply have increased steadily and averaged 5.6 months in 2018.
  • Persistent oversupply has resulted in a decline in Airdrie prices.  In 2018 detached benchmark prices averaged $369,042, over two percent below last year


Cochrane

  • Declining by 64 units, 2018 sales in Cochrane were lower than the previous year. However, an annual count of 599 sales remains comparable to activity over the past three years.
  • In 2018 there were 1,288 new listings, the highest on record.  Elevated new listings and easing sales resulted in rising inventories and months of supply that averaged nearly 7 months.  
  • Elevated supply has caused detached prices to trend down over the second half of the year, however, it was not enough to offset earlier gains.  In 2018, detached benchmark prices have remained comparable to last year.


Okotoks

  • 2018 residential sales in Okotoks were 463 units, a decline over last year and comparable to 2010 activity.
  • Gains in new listings combined with slower sales resulted in rising inventory and excess supply in this market. 
  • Despite increased supply and weak sales, detached home prices in Okotoks showed modest increases in 2018. The average detached benchmark price totalled $434,875, which is one per cent higher than last year.

Courtesy: Terence Leung CREB

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City of Calgary, December 3, 2018


Sitting below long-term averages, November sales in the city totaled 1,171 units. For the year so far, sales activity has totaled 15,349 units, a 14 per cent decline over last year and nearly 20 per cent below long-term averages.


"Recent challenges in the energy sector have weighed on consumer confidence over the past month. Combined with weakness in the employment market and further gains in lending rates, this is impacting ownership demand," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


New listings eased by seven per cent in November compared to last year. The adjustment in new listings has helped prevent further inventory gains, with 6,501 units in overall inventory, but levels remain well above the 5,683 units in inventory seen last year and 32 per cent higher than typical levels for November.


"Higher inventories and weaker sales are resulting in buyer's market conditions and price declines," said Lurie.The citywide benchmark price was $422,600 in November, nearly one per cent lower than last month and over three per cent below last year's levels.


Year-to-date sales have slowed across all price ranges, except product priced below $200,000, which now represents nearly six per cent of all sales. The largest decline in sales has occurred in the $600,000 - $999,9999 range.


"In any market, affordable product is always desirable," said CREB® president Tom Westcott.

"For buyers, it may mean being able to step into a home that was previously unattainable. It also means that sellers need to be keenly aware what is successfully selling in their neighbourhood and surrounding communities."


HOUSING MARKET FACTS


Detached

  • Detached sales declined across all districts in November. With citywide sales of 679 units, activity remains 21 per cent below typical levels for the month.
  • New listings eased by three per cent compared to last year, due to declines mostly in the North East, North and South East districts. Year-to-date new listings this year have increased in all areas except the North East and East districts.
  • Inventories in the detached sector totaled 3,491 units, 26 per cent higher than last year's levels. Months of supply sits at five months, well above the three-month typical for November.
  • Detached benchmark prices totaled $486,000 in November, a one per cent decline over last month and a three per cent decline over last year. This is nearly seven per cent below monthly highs recorded in October 2014.
  • Prices have eased across all districts in November. On a year-to-date basis, the largest declines this year have occurred in the North East and North districts. This is likely due to the increased competition from the new-home sector. The districts that remain furthest from price recovery are the North West and South districts.

Apartment

  • Despite year-over-year gains in sales in November, citywide apartment sales have totaled 2,557 units so far this year. This is five per cent lower than last year and 21 per cent below long-term averages.
  • The majority of activity in condos is located within the city centre, representing nearly 48 per cent of all the sales activity.
  • Following years of oversupply, the number of new listings in the apartment sector continues to ease, helping prevent further significant gains in inventories and even contributing to inventory reductions in the South, East and North East districts.
  • Despite some adjustments in inventories, most areas continue to struggle with oversupply, causing further price declines. Price declines this year have ranged from a high of nearly six per cent in the East district to a low of two per cent in both the City Centre and North West districts.

Attached

  • Year-to-date attached sales totaled 3,344 units, a 16 per cent decline over the previous year and 14 per cent below long-term averages. Sales activity eased across most districts except for the North East, where sales remained relatively stable because of improvements in row activity.
  • Overall, rising new listings continue to place upward pressure on inventory levels and the gains have mostly occurred with semi-detached product.
  • Oversupply conditions have weighed on prices. In November, the semi-detached benchmark price totaled $400,700. This is a monthly and year-over year decline of 0.67 and 3.3 per cent, respectively. Recent price declines have caused this sector to erase any of the gains that occurred last year, as year-to-date prices remain comparable to 2017 levels.
  • Row prices have also been edging down, but at a slower pace than semi-detached product. As of November, row prices were $292,900, a 0.2 per cent decline from last month and just over three per cent below last year's levels. Overall, year-to-date prices remain nearly two per cent below last year's levels and nearly 10 per cent below previous highs.


REGIONAL MARKET FACTS


Airdrie

  • The Airdrie housing market continues to experience declining sales and increasing inventory. Persistently elevated levels of supply have led to downward pressures on the benchmark price for detached homes.
  • Year-to-date sales activity in Airdrie has declined year-over-year by 142 units, with current levels at 1,101 units. Levels of new listings are comparable to last year but remain higher than long-term averages.
  • Year-to-date average inventory is almost 18 per cent higher than the same period in 2017, keeping average months of supply at around six months. This continued pressure has resulted in a decline in house prices, with year-to-date benchmark value of detached homes now sitting at $342,773, which is a year-over-year decline of nearly two percent.

Cochrane

  • Year-to-date, residential sales have declined by 58 units, totaling 573 units so far in 2018. These levels are comparable to similar periods in the past few years and are higher than long-term averages.
  • New listings continue to reach historical peaks for each period this year, with levels so far in 2018 being 308 units higher than long-term averages. Months of inventory remain elevated, with year-to-date average inventory levels being 14 per cent higher than in 2017.
  • Despite some recent declines, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have remained relatively stable compared to last year.

Okotoks

  • Year-to-date residential sales have declined to 449 units in 2018 and are comparable to levels from 2010.
  • New listings have remained slightly higher than last year's levels. Oversupply continues in this market, with year-to-date average inventories being 53 units higher compared to 2017.
  • Despite increased supply with weak sales, detached home prices in Okotoks show modest increases. Year-to-date, the average detached benchmark price totaled $436,091, 1.5 per cent higher than last year.

Courtesy: Terence Leung CREB

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Oversupplied market weighs on prices

City of Calgary, November 1, 2018 –

Elevated inventory levels compared to sales, are causing prices to ease further in Calgary’s housing market.

Citywide benchmark prices totaled $426,300 in October, trending down for the fifth consecutive month and resulting in a year-over-year decline of 2.9 per cent.

“Job growth in this city remains a concern, as unemployment levels remain well above levels expected for this year. Rising costs of ownership also continue to weigh on housing demand,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“At the same time, housing supply levels are not adjusting fast enough to current conditions, resulting in price adjustments.”

Inventories and sales totaled 7,345 and 1,322 in October. This has resulted in months of supply of 5.6, above levels typical for this month. While some easing in new listing growth will help prevent further inventory gains, inventory levels remain near record highs for the month of October.

“With these types of market conditions, many potential buyers should be able to find the home that they are looking for with well priced listings appearing in certain price ranges,” said CREB® president Tom Westcott. “Sellers need to manage expectations and have accurate data in order to be aware of what is selling in their community.”

For each of the property types, sales activity has improved in the lower price ranges, leaving most of those segments relatively balanced. However, the upper end of the ranges has seen significant gains in supply compared to demand, which is likely having more of an impact on prices in those ranges.


HOUSING MARKET FACTS


Detached

  • Detached sales in October totaled 829 units, for an 8.6-per-cent decline, resulting in a year-to-date decline of 15 per cent. This is the slowest level of detached sales since the late ’90s. 
  • Year-to-date, the largest decline in sales occurred in the $600,000 – $999,999 price range, reflecting slow demand coming from move-up buyers.
  • For the second month in a row, new-listing growth eased, helping prevent further inventory gains. However, as this segment remains oversupplied, prices continue to trend down. 
  • Detached benchmark prices totaled $490,200 in October. This is below last month and three per cent below last year. On a year-to-date basis, prices remain one per cent below last year’s levels.
  • As of October, year-over-year prices have eased across all districts, with the largest declines occurring in the North East, North West, South and South East districts. This is likely a result of added competition from the new-home sector. 

Apartment

  • Year-to-date apartment sales have totaled 2,316 units, nearly seven per cent below last year. New listings have also eased by six per cent, helping reduce the amount of inventory in the market.
  • Despite the easing inventories, the months of supply remains elevated at 7 months. 
  • Year-to-date apartment condominium prices have eased by 2.8 per cent and remain 14 per cent below 2014 highs. Declines occurred across all districts, with the steepest declines occurring in the North East, East and South districts.

Attached

  • The attached sector has recorded year-to-date sales of 3,098. This is 15 per cent below last year and 14 per cent below long-term averages. 
  • Meanwhile, despite recent easing in new listings, October inventories are the highest level on record.
  • The oversupply is affecting both the semi-detached and row sectors, which have seen prices trend down over the past 5 months.
  • Year-to-date, row benchmark prices have averaged $298,140 this year, nearly two per cent below last year and nine per cent below previous highs. However, prices have remained relatively flat in both the City Centre and North West districts.
  • As of October, semi-detached prices were $403,400, one per cent lower than last month and nearly three per cent lower than last year. Despite recent declines, year-to-date citywide prices remain relatively flat compared to last year. This was most due to gains in the City Centre, North East and East districts offsetting declines in the North West, South and South East.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

  • Airdrie’s housing market continues to experience declining sales and increasing inventory compared to last year. Elevated supply levels have led to downward pressures on the benchmark prices for detached homes. 
  • Total year-to-date residential sales have reached 1,032 units, 11 percent below levels last year. Year-to-date, new listings have remained relatively stable, but remain well above long-term averages. 
  • Year-to-date average inventory levels are 19 per cent higher than. As a result, months of supply have been elevated, and presently stand at six months. This has translated to sustained pressure on benchmark price, with the year-to-date value of detached homes now sitting at $370,880, which is a year-over-year decline of nearly two percent. 

Cochrane

  • Year-to-date, residential sales have declined by 10 per cent, with 530 sales so far in 2018. These levels are comparable to similar periods in the past few years and higher than long-term averages. 
  • At 1,164 units, new listings have reached a historical peak for this period and well above long-term averages. Inventory levels in Cochrane for 2018 have been persistently elevated and are almost 17 per cent higher than the same period last year.
  • This has started to place some downward pressure on prices. However, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have remained relatively stable compared to last year with a benchmark price of $424,900. 

Okotoks

  • Year-to-date residential sales have declined to 428 units in 2018, comparable to levels from 2011 and well below long-term averages. 
  • New listings are elevated at 936 units, which is eight per cent higher than last year’s levels and close to long-term averages. Inventory levels in October remain elevated with 232 units.   
  • Despite gains in the amount of supply compared to sales, Okotoks detached prices have seen some modest gains.  Year-to-date benchmark prices for detached properties totaled $436,660, 1.25 per cent higher than last year. 

Courtesy: Terence Leung CREB

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City of Calgary, October 1, 2018 – With no change in the economic climate, Calgary's sales activity totaled 1,272 units in September, a 13 per cent decline over the previous year and well below long-term averages. There was a pullback in sales across all product types, most notably the detached market.


"Calgary's economy continues to struggle with unemployment, which rose again last month to over eight per cent. Concerns in the employment market, higher lending rates and shaken confidence are weighing on housing demand," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. 


"At the same time, supply levels continue to remain high, resulting in persistent oversupply and price declines." 

Inventories totaled 7,941 units, pushing the months of supply to 6.25. This continuation in oversupply is placing downward pressure on prices. The unadjusted citywide benchmark price totaled $428,700 in September. This is nearly one per cent below last month and three per cent below last year's levels.


"This is the new normal of Calgary's real estate," said CREB® president Tom Westcott.


"Some potential buyers may want to take advantage of the market conditions, but they face difficulties selling their existing home based on their expectations. This prevents them from purchasing something else." 


September sales have dipped, but third quarter figures generally point towards a slower decline in sales and some easing in new listings growth. This was not enough to impact inventory levels this quarter. 


The Calgary economy continues to struggle, but there are some signs of improvement in the rental market, which could contribute to a slow reduction in overall housing supply, 


HOUSING MARKET FACTS

Detached

  • Year-to-date sales eased to 7,945 units, over 20 per cent below the 10-year average. Sales eased across all price ranges, except properties under $300,000, which posted a modest gain.  
  • Easing sales were met with some adjustments in new listings in September. However, inventories remain elevated and are higher than long-term averages in most districts. 
  • Months of supply rose to 5.5 months in September and continue to weigh on housing prices across all districts.
  • Detached benchmark prices totaled $493,100 in September. This is a 0.8 per cent decline over last month and three per cent below the previous year. 
  • Prices have trended down in most districts in September. However, on a year-to-date basis, benchmark prices remain above last year in both the City Centre and West districts. 

Apartment

  • The apartment sector has seen the slowest decline in sales at six per cent so far this year. Like the detached sector, activity remains over 20 per cent below long-term averages, totaling 2,103 sales. 
  • For the fourth month in a row, new listings have generally trended lower than levels recorded last year. This has helped reduce some of the inventory in the market compared to the previous year. 
  • However, even with some reductions in inventory levels, the market continues to remain firmly in buyer's territory when compared to the reduction in sales.
  • With more supply than demand, benchmark prices for apartment condominium continued to ease in September, declining by 0.4 per cent over last month and 2.7 per cent compared to last year.

Attached

  • The attached sector has recorded year-to-date sales of 2,814. This is 15 per cent below last year and 14 per cent below long-term averages. 
  • With no significant reduction in new listings, inventory levels remained elevated, pushing up months of supply to over seven months. 
  • Elevated levels of supply compared to demand persisted for both row and semi-detached product types. Like all other sectors, the oversupply has weighed on prices across all districts, except the City Centre, North East and East.
  • While September semi-detached benchmark prices eased, year-to-date prices remained just above last year's levels.  The recent oversupply has eroded some of the steps made toward price recovery last year.
  • Row benchmark prices have averaged $298,667 this year, nearly two per cent below last year and nine per cent below previous highs. Despite the citywide pullback, row prices have remained relatively stable in the City Centre, North West and South East districts.  

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

  • Airdrie's housing market has exhibited buyer's market conditions so far this year. This is largely due to weak economic conditions that have hindered growth in demand. This does not help alleviate excess supply and has led to a downward pressure on benchmark prices for detached homes.
  • Year-to-date total residential sales in Airdrie have declined compared to last year and sit at levels comparable to activity recorded in 2012. Meanwhile, new listings have remained elevated, causing inventories to reach new highs for September.
  • Elevated months of supply have continued to place downward pressure on prices. The year-to-date detached benchmark price averaged $371,244. This is a 1.7 per cent decline from 2017 levels and five per cent below previous highs. 

Cochrane

  • Affected by similarly weak economic conditions, the housing market in Cochrane has also experienced slight supply-side imbalances. 
  • Year-to-date sales in the town were recorded at 477 units, 59 units lower than 2017. Sales growth has been trending downward for most of the year. However, levels in 2018 are still higher than those recorded in 2015 and 2016.  
  • New listings in Cochrane have been persistently growing for most of the year and year-to-date levels are 269 units higher than long-term averages. Inventories have now reached a new September peak at 360 units, leading to elevated months of supply.
  • The oversupply in the market has started to cause prices to trend down in the third quarter.  However, it has not been enough to erase earlier gains, leaving year-to-date benchmark prices just above last year's levels. So far this year, detached prices remain four per cent below recent highs.  

Okotoks

  • Okotoks is facing supply pressures in the market due to slowing sales and increases in new listings. 
  • Despite the presence of oversupply, benchmark prices have managed to remain relatively stable in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. At $436,422, year-to-date detached benchmark prices have averaged nearly one per cent higher than the previous year, but remain three per cent below previous highs. 

Courtesy: terence.leung@creb.ca

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